Ultimately, whether the market’s four-week bet proves accurate will depend on geopolitical developments in the coming days. Struyven is closely watching for signals regarding the conflict’s length, noting that sweeping goals like “regime change” from the U.S. administration could indicate a protracted war, while narrower military goals or the rise of a reformist leader in Iran could offer an off-ramp for a shorter conflict. For now, Wall Street is pricing in a month of turmoil, hoping the physical flow of oil resumes before prices are forced into the triple digits.
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For ordinary Afghans, reeling under a severe crisis of hunger and poverty, and living under the Taliban government's stringent restrictions, the one positive since 2021 was that after four decades of war, they didn't have to worry about bombs falling on them and their families.
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